Health and economic gains from bariatric surgery in Portugal: an in-depth analysis using a Markov model

Obesity is one of the leading drivers of chronic disease and healthcare expenditure. While bariatric surgery requires a higher upfront investment, its long-term clinical benefits translate into fewer complications, improved quality of life, and lower healthcare costs over time.

MOAI developed a Markov model to assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery compared with conventional treatment in the Portuguese healthcare setting. Published in Health Economics Review, the study showed that bariatric surgery is cost-effective within 10 years, becomes cost-saving after 20 years, and provides an additional 7 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) while reducing lifetime healthcare costs by €4,534 per patient.

Robust health economic modelling is essential to understand the true value of healthcare interventions. By looking beyond the short term, MOAI’s work promotes better-informed decisions that improve both patient outcomes and the sustainability of healthcare systems.